Friday, April 15, 2011

The First Steps

This weekend three teams will earn the right to be called Conference Champion.  These teams will wake up Monday morning feeling much better about their chances of making it to the Promised Land.  Meanwhile everyone else will return to the drawing board, trying to figure where it went wrong.   Which teams have what it takes to be sitting pretty come Sunday?  Read on.  


Once Superior

For those who are unaware, this season the UPA, or USAUltimate has made the switch from Sectionals to Conferences.  This is not just a change of name though, as it comes with the advent of divisions.  Schools big enough (or good enough) will play in the D-I Conference Championships, while everyone else will be filtered into D-III or Development Conferences.  It's a big change, but will have differing levels of impact on the Conferences.

The Lake Superior Conference is probably the least affected one in the Central Region.  This is because, although all the conferences in this Region have a lack of parity, the Lake Superior Conference has the least.  

Make no mistake, Wisconsin has gone unchallenged in this conference, meaning dress-up-in-costumes-for-Sectionals unchallenged, for many years.  The difference now though is that it’s been two long years since Wisconsin has made a serious run at a national title.  The Hodags are no longer considered the most superior team in the country, and they know it.  Expect them to come into the weekend serious, and ready to start what they desperately want to be their ascent back to the top.  While Wisconsin-Whitewater seems to be back to 2007 form, the Hodags will still be able to treat this weekend as their annual dip in the pool - a taper of sorts - as they lead up to the real contest in Appleton in two weeks.  

Sub Par: For the past two years the team from Whitewater has played down to their name. However, in 2007 they were able to sneak ten points past the Hodags - a team that went on to win the national championship that year.  The Double-Dubs went on to snag a championship  of their own (albeit D-III) that year. 

It seems like they have rekindled some of that same spirit from '07.  They hung in with two solid teams in Minnesota and Washington University.  Sitting at 6th in the Central Region, this team is not overrated, and will certainly feel as though they have a shot to make a solid run at Regionals.  Unfortunately for them, that does not mean they will be able to knock off Wisconsin this weekend.  


Plains & Simple - 

Teams and fans will make their way to Cedar Falls (not Ames), IA for the first ever West Plains Conference tournament this weekend.  Of course, while the name may be different, the rivalries remain the same.  

It’s good that the UPA, or as they are now called, USAUltimate has gotten wise and realized that having less inequality in a tournament is a good thing.  Ultimate simply does not (could not) have the parity of college basketball.  Iowa-B was never going to go crazy, a la VCU, and storm through Sectionals making a surprising run to the Regional final.  With the advent of divisions, this weekend’s conference showdown, featuring only six teams, will undoubtedly be better (my apologies to Grinnell).  However, just because B-teams, Drake, and Wartburg are gone does not mean there is parity in this conference.  

As is always the case in the West Plains, three teams know they matter – the rest are playing for the right to.   Recognizing this reality, when one looks at the format, it is hard to say if it is a positive or a negative to have the tournament set up as a round robin.  

In past years, it was always such an advantage to be the team who secured the #1 seed, as that team would have a clear road to the final.  Meanwhile, in the other pool, seeds #2 and #3 would battle for the right to play in the final.  Make and win that final, and your team experiences one of the most pain free weekends of Ultimate possible.  Lose it, and you get a rematch against that danged 3rd team on tired legs, and a tired mind.  

What has been fixed?  Well, the initial round robin will mean the #1 seed no longer has a guaranteed road to the final.  Team #1 will have to play both #'s 2 and 3 and will be tested just as much as them in order to make it to Sunday’s final.  

However, what is even worse than before, is that now the loser of the final will STILL have to come back and play for 2nd place.  Why can this sport not get this right?  If two teams make the finals, especially through a round-robin format, that should be the last game they play on Sunday.  Team #3 has no legitimate right to get a second chance by that point (I will stand corrected if the records are equal amongst the top three after RR play). 

So, who are top three?  If you don’t already know, I’m surprised you’re still reading a blog post about the West Plains.  Nobody cares about the West Plains Conference, don’t you know that?!?!

Anyways, the three teams that matter in this conference are Iowa State, Iowa, and Luther.  Grinnell has tried to matter in the past, and sadly has either chosen to play D-III this year, or was not allowed to participate in D-I.  UNI really believes they have a chance this year, and with it being at home, and with Iowa State being a bit weaker this year, maybe they do.  But, at least for now, the assumption is nothing will change.  Iowa State, Iowa, and Luther will battle it out on Saturday for spots in Sunday’s final, and the two unlucky ones will battle it out for 2nd place on Sunday afternoon. 

Iowa State:  Maybe Centex was just a really bad weekend.  Or maybe this Iowa State team is just not as good as the 2010 version.  Of course, it’s hard to say.  True, Grinnell improved over the summer, but only beating them by four at the Midwest Throwdown?  The basic conclusion should be that either this team has underperformed in the regular season, or they will have a repeat of 2009 when they failed to make the final, and failed to gain revenge in the 2nd place game. 

Player to watch:  If Ryan Pesch is playing, you better bring it.  He, and really the rest of ISUC’s pesky handler core, will outwork you if you let them.  

Word to the wise:  In the 2nd place game, this team’s hustle could be a concern.  If you let them outwork you, good luck.  Even if less talented, it takes more talent than Luther and Iowa have to overcome being outhustled.  

Iowa: Anytime you win a tournament it is a good regular season.  No exception here.  Anytime you are one of the teams to help secure a bid to Nationals for a region it is a good regular season.  In other words, Iowa had a good regular season.  However, when you start scouring the record for marquee wins, it’s a little hard to say what would count.  Illinois?  Okay.  California?  Yep.  But, Ohio?  UNC-Wilmington?  That's a stretch.  Nevertheless, this is clearly the most battle-tested team in the Conference, and they will be a true contender for Nationals.  The coach thing seems to be working for them as well.  No doubt, these guys will come in expecting to win, especially after having done it two out of the last three years. 

Player to watch: Shark, as his name suggests, is a scary player.  But, unlike his namesake, he is scary in the air.  No one in the Conference (Region?) can match him up there. 

Word to the wise: While Shark may be scary, and potentially unstoppable, this handling core (especially Sergei and Garrett) is really good.  Working in their favor this year is the fact they know it. Shut them down first, because if you allow them to get off solid shots down field, the battle is already over.  

Luther: It is way too early with this team to know how good (or not) they are.  What we do know is they are young (only four seniors will touch the field).  What else we know is they are athletic and well-coached, a good combination.   A close game against Iowa in the early season could be a preview of what to expect come Sunday’s final, and an ugly loss against Central Florida is one of those characteristic blemishes on a young team’s resume.  This team won the unofficial West Plains warm-up down in Lawrence due to discipline, something this youthful bunch will need to have late in games this weekend.

Player to watch: By now, everyone in the Central Region knows what Eric Johnson can do.  Even still, no one will be able to stop him. 

Word to the wise: Luther has had a complete transformation (in just a little over three years) from a team that was purely athletic, to a team that has the discipline, strategy, and hustle to match it.  With a young bunch this year, structure was essential to surviving.  But, this is not a team you can hope to simply outsmart, because as always, they pack the athletic punch.  In fact, the 2011 version might have the best athletic shot they've ever packed.  


Don’t Lose Sight of the Trees, for the ‘Woods

This conference was perhaps the most affected by the divisional splits.   Instead of sixteen teams descending upon Northfield, MN this weekend, only seven teams will be making the trek.   The most noticeable losses include St. Olaf and the GOP.  But in the end, as the title of this section suggests, those lost will not really be missed.   The old adage has been turned around a bit here, but the point is that this conference is no different – only a handful of teams matter.  Winona State may try to argue that they matter, but everyone inside and outside of the conference knows what Sunday’s final will be. 

Minnesota v. Carleton (for disgruntled commentary regarding the Round Robin format see above)

Minnesota is a good team, but they were a good team last year and failed to make the final.  Two solid showings at Nationals the past two years clearly show this team can be a contender on the national stage, and yet it almost seems they will never get over the hump that is Carleton.   

It is hard to imagine Carleton being better this year than they were last year, but extra years under the belts of guys like Childs-Walker and Norden is maybe all it took.  In fact though, I do not think they are better.  But it won't matter.  Minnesota knows how to lose in the Conference and Carleton simply does not.  

One secret to making Nationals, and especially making a run, is that every game matters - especially those in the Series.  Carleton will come in with no intentions of having a slip up this weekend, as they know it could affect their chances at a National championship.  Meanwhile Minnesota will accept their fate, will probably make Nationals, but not without a few more losses before getting there. 

Things to expect: Expect a packed Carleton sideline. This will be the only chance the Knights have to watch CUT at home this season. 


    

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